EDMONTON — An elite top end, an overabundance of fringe wingers, and as usual, a big, fat question mark in goal.
As much change as Edmonton Oilers general manager Stan Bowman tried to inflict on his roster this past summer, training camp almost always opens the same way: With a new coach, the lingering question over whether Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid should play apart or together and a goaltending situation that is wide open to question.
They’re already setting the betting line here in Edmonton over whether or not new head coach Mike Babcock makes it past Christmas. But aside from the punters, it’s a complicated bet to assess an Oilers roster that will be shaped by a unique head coach who simply does things (good or bad) differently than those who have preceded him.
Does Babcock believe in starting games with McDavid and Draisaitl on his top line? Or do they present a lethal Plan B, to be utilized together when you’re trailing a game after two periods?
If they run their own lines, does Babcock even care that Draisaitl loves to have Vasily Podkolzin on his left side? Or will he deploy the hard-checking, speedy winger on his third line to even things out across his lines?
How will Babcock react to Evan Bouchard’s first giveaway game? Or to an ageing Mattias Ekholm, who doesn’t get there quite as quickly as he once did?
Does Trent Frederic get any leash at all? Or does a guy like Mathieu Joseph or Eduards Tralmaks wheel in and take a job, the kind of shock treatment that the fiery Babcock might deploy with a roster that became a little comfortable last season?
What if Tristan Jarry lays an egg in Game 3 or 4? Now what?
Let’s start up front, with the lines we’d use to start the season. Keep in mind, first-line left winger Matt Savoie is out with an injury (likely through late October at least), and Mattias Janmark is also hurt.
Forwards
Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Howard
Frederic - Dickinson - Kapanen
Jones – Samanski – Dach
Tralmaks - Joseph
I firmly believe Edmonton is a tougher opponent when McDavid and Draisaitl pilot their own lines. Plus, moving them together mid-game or after a penalty kill is a shot in the Oilers’ arm, whereas taking them apart halfway through a sleepy game tends to give the opponent a feeling that they’re winning the day.
So Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the perfect guy: he can play left wing with McDavid, or he can move to 2C when Plan B kicks in. But if Savoie returns and finds his form from late last season, where does that leave Nugent-Hopkins? On Dickinson’s line with Kapanen?
I’m bullish on Dach, a young, beefy winger who plays with tough energy. The Oilers lack the sandpaper he brings, and as such, we believe Babcock will be all over Frederic to return to his physical form. That’s a relationship that could go either way: Excellent, if Frederic produces and makes Babcock look good. Or toxic if he doesn’t.
And what of Joseph? Was he acquired simply to light a fire under the Frederics and Janmarks of the world? Or is there a better player than the guy who was so often scratched in St. Louis last season?
There is no NHL team that’s stronger down the middle than the Oilers, with McDavid, Draisaitl and Dickinson, which should give Josh Samanski (24) time to grow. We’ll see how that theory meshes with Babcock’s history of using young players, and the same should be said for Ike Howard.
After 24 goals and a point-per-game AHL season last year, Howard has earned a shot. We wonder if Babcock will agree?
Defence
Ekholm – Bouchard
Walman – Murphy
Shea – Emberson
Mukhamadullin
Lots of guys here — we haven’t included Spencer Stastney — and the only changing dynamic is a want by Bowman to play Ekholm a little less, and Jake Walman a little more.
That works if Walman stays healthy and plays better than he did last season, and if Babcock finds a way to eliminate the big mistake from Bouchard’s game without crushing the player’s spirit.
Shakir Mukhamadullin, a six-foot-four 24-year-old whom folks in San Jose quite liked, is the wild-card here. How good is he now, and how good can he be?
Or did the Sharks simply offload a guy in the Nurse deal who they thought they could live without?
Goaltending
Tristan Jarry
Devon Levi
(Injured — Frederik Andersen)
Jarry is due for a bounce-back season, but what does that even mean? Bounce back to what? A ‘B’ starter?
And Levi has never done it at the NHL level. He has 36 career starts.
The biggest question here is whether Babcock can create a defensive environment in which goalies will have a chance to be good in Edmonton. There’s a reason this place has been a goalie graveyard.
It’s not all about the guy in the crease.
